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Iowa Republicans select Mitt Romney as the winner of the 2012 Iowa Caucus with Rick Santorum in 2nd place by a mere 8 votes! Iowa has spoken! And the name Iowa has voiced is Mitt Romney - followed by a very quick and extremely close Rick Santorum. A much deserved win for Romney, some would agree, and a hard earned 2nd place win for Santorum. Both have campaigned steadily in Iowa and have proven the belief that to win the Iowa Caucus, you must win over the Iowan voter. The Iowa Caucus has traditionally been the first Caucus in the United States since 1972 and is considered to be the first step in the nomination process of selecting the next President of the United States of America. With 1,774 of 1,774 (100%) precincts reporting, the results of the 2012 Iowa Caucus are listed below:
The following questions were asked of visitors to our site in the IowaCaucus.biz
Public Opinion Poll:
2. Which candidate do you think will work best with Congress?
3. Which candidate will work well with Business?
4. Which candidate will negotiate with the Democratic Party?
5. Which candidate do you think will win the Iowa Caucus? (See Prediction Above) 6. Are you happy with the current Republican Candidates?
7. With which Political Party do you currently associate yourself?
How much will be spent on the 2012 Iowa Caucus? This site is projecting that the amount spent on the 2012 Iowa Caucuses will be extraordinarily low, somewhere between $7,333,326 to $10,476,180 total from both parties participating in the Iowa Caucus. This is a far smaller amount than what was spent on the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, which was around $51,593,849.00 (See Spending). Part of the reason for the decrease in spending in Iowa is that the Iowa Caucuses will be held on January 3rd, 2012 instead of in February or even the predicted date of January 16th, 2012. Our projections are also based on what the Republicans, exclusively, spent in Iowa in 2008, using a formula of $.35 to $.50 per Iowa voter, which would be approximately 2,095,236 individuals aged 18 years or older. Of the 12 Republican Candidates who have visited Iowa, only half will participate in the Iowa Caucuses. In addition, any spending by the Democratic party to promote the Incumbent President will be on a much smaller scale without any challengers from the Democratic party. Projections from IowaCaucuses.biz are based on the following expenditures by candidates: buying TV airtime in Iowa; booking radio airtime in Iowa; purchasing ad space in Iowa Newspapers; arranging transportation via car rentals and fuel costs in Iowa; paying for campaign headquarters in Iowa, including rental of office space and staff salaries; and allotting for food and lodging for staff staying in Iowa. So the estimated amount per individual candidate to campaign in Iowa would be approximately $733,333. Those that do not spend time in the state would presumably spend even less. There will be more advertisement opportunities available for the Republicans in 2012 because the Democrats are not consuming allot of TV airtime, newspaper ads or even radio spots. In addition to the above outlined costs by candidates, there are also airfares for flights to shuttle candidates quickly across the state from one airport to another. The formula used to calculate the amount spent on advertising and other campaign expenses is roughly 1/30 of the individual candidates total operational expenses, which we obtained from FEC Filings for the year end on December 31, 2011. The money raised and spent for just TV ads for the Iowa Caucuses will probably be around $6,000,000 because some of the Republican candidates are planning on spending most of their time in New Hampshire and only running TV ads in Iowa. How much will each candidate spend on the 2012 Iowa Caucus?
FEC Presidential
Reports How do the candidates promote themselves in Iowa? The candidates who visit Iowa are afforded many opportunities to reach out and speak to Iowa Caucus goers. One of the overlooked avenues to get the attention of Iowa Caucus goers is by talking to the local news sources. This allows the candidate to communicate their views to a significant amount of individuals in that local community without going door-to-door (See Iowa News). One of the main ways that a candidate can get their message out is via Iowa Public Television and by participating on Iowa Press (See Iowa Press), which has worked for sitting presidents and candidates who have won the Iowa Caucus in the past. The 2012 Iowa Caucus will be held in less than a month! The 2012 Iowa Caucus, which is historically the first Caucus in the Nation, has been set to be held on January 3rd, 2012. The two major parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, had been hopeful that the Iowa Caucus kick-off would remain on February 6th, 2012. However, under state law, Iowa is sanctioned to be the first Caucus held in the Nation, not the first Primary, and with other states moving their Caucuses and Primaries ahead of Iowa, the state was left with no other choice but to move its' Caucus ahead to January 3rd. (See http://www.legis.state.ia.us/IACODE/2001SUPPLEMENT/43/4.html and the Green Papers http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c.) Which candidates have attended the 2011 Iowa Republican Presidential Debates? The first Iowa Republican Presidential Debate was held in Ames, Iowa on Thursday, August 11th. The following candidates, in alphabetical order, smartly attended the Republican Presidential Debate: Michele Bachmann, Hermain Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. The event was broadcast by Fox News. The second Republican Presidential Debate held in Iowa was at the Drake University Campus in Des Moines on Saturday, December 10th. This was the second major televised debate in Iowa. Rick Perry was in attendance for this debate. Two candidates who were present for the first Iowa debate, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain, were not a part of the second debate because they had withdrawn their bids for the Presidency. One other candidate who had been a participant in the first Iowa debate, Jon Huntsman, was denied participation in the second debate because he had been trailing the other candidates in recent polls. The second 2011 Republican Presidential Debate was hosted by the Des Moines Register and ABC news. (See More Info.) The third Iowa Republican Presidential Debate was held on Thursday, December 15th, at the Convention Center in Sioux City, and was hosted by Fox News. It was the last major Republican debate scheduled to be held in the state of Iowa before the January 3rd, 2012 Iowa Caucuses. The following candidates were in attendance: Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. The results of the Iowa Straw Poll - no surprises here! The Iowa Straw Poll was held on Saturday, August 13. How important is the Iowa Straw Poll? In the last 5 Iowa Straw Polls held, only one winner has gone on to win the nomination of the Republican Party - George W. Bush. Insightful early prediction - not so much. It's safe to say this first of the Iowa Straw Polls may not have much to do in deciding the Iowa Caucus winner. The results of the Iowa Straw Poll were as follows: 1st Place - Michele Bachmann, 2nd Place - Ron Paul, 3rd Place - Tim Pawlenty, 4th Place - Rick Santorum, 5th Place - Hermain Cain, 6th Place - Rick Perry (write in), 7th Place - Mitt Romney, 8th Place - Newt Gingrich, and 9th Place - Jon Huntsman. (For further information on the Iowa Straw Poll, see http://iowagop.org/iowagop/?p=79.) How important is Iowa to the Republican candidates? Every state is important. Every meet-and-greet, every debate. But it's that first impression that stays with you - that shapes how you view an individual, that gets you a 'thumbs-up' or a 'thumbs-down' in the minds of the American voters. So how important is Iowa and the Iowa Caucuses to the Republican Presidential hopefuls? Plenty important. Of all the Republican Presidential candidates who have won the office of the President in the last 30 years, almost all of them have also won the Iowa Caucus. The number of candidates who did well in Iowa is significant. Only two candidates did not go on to become President: John McCain, who skipped most of the Iowa Caucus, and Bob Dole. If we take a look at the candidates who did not do well in the Iowa Caucus in the last 30 years, none have gone on to become president. This fact makes it extremely important for the Republican party not to give up on a key state that played a pivotal role in the past three decades of voting for a Republican candidate to win their parties nomination to become president. The 2012 Iowa Caucus will be held in less than a year! The Iowa Caucus is historically the first in the Nation, and the next Caucus had been set to be held on February 6th, 2012. However, the new tentative date for the Iowa Caucus is going to be in January of 2012 because various states have been adjusting their Primary schedules, moving them up earlier in the year to secure a more prominent date. Ironically, some states are doing just the opposite and are setting their Primaries back in the year to save on cost. The two major parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, had been hopeful that the Caucus kick-off would remain on February 6th, 2012, but under state law, Iowa is sanctioned to be the first Caucus held in the Nation, not the first Primary. Therefore, with other states moving their Caucuses and Primaries ahead of Iowa, the state will be left with no other choice but to move its' Caucus to January of 2012. (See http://www.legis.state.ia.us/IACODE/2001SUPPLEMENT/43/4.html and see The Green Papers http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c.) Will 'tradition' be trampled as other states vie for the 'first in the Nation' title that the Iowa Caucus has held since 1972? The Iowa Caucus has traditionally been the first step taken in the nomination process for the President of the United States. Presumably, in January of 2012, Iowa will once again, fingers crossed, host the first Caucus. In fact, Iowa has a better than 90% chance of keeping its' status as the first Caucus in the Nation's Primary process. The Iowa Caucus has been a litmus test for presidential candidates, starting back in 1972. Quite a bit more polling research and geographic data has been compiled about Iowa and its' residents than any other state, and this data has been used to assist future presidential candidates with determining areas in the state in which they believe they will have strong support and areas where they believe they will be welcomed weakly. Therefore, it makes common sense for candidates to continue to use Iowa as the clearing field for narrowing the choices of presidential candidates to the top four individuals from each political party. The 2012 Iowa Caucus will most likely only involve one of the two major political parties, considering a sitting president will be a participant and won't need the vast exposure of the Iowa Caucus as much as a new and unknown candidate. What makes the political atmosphere of the Iowa Caucus 'traditional' as opposed to other caucuses? The Iowa Caucus process starts out months before the actual Caucus as assembly hall type meetings start to crop up, with candidates making scheduled visits to particular places in Iowa communities. Typically, the meetings takes place at local high schools, universities, libraries, town halls, coffee shops, hotel conference centers, and other public buildings. The smaller venues allow the candidates to interact on a more intimate level while the larger venues allow a wider audience to participate as the candidate is able to move freely amongst the public, shaking hands, answering questions, discussing platform issues, and, hopefully, inspiring fund raisers to assist with campaign donations. Most of the candidates are able to garner quality time with voters because of the small town atmosphere that permeates each meeting. Iowans tend to have more traditional values and believe that the process of selecting the most qualified candidate for president of the United States is very serious business and every citizens duty to their country. Iowans are hospitable to candidates and enjoy engaging others in discussions on political and social issues, and the environment in Iowa has always been safe and inviting for presidential candidates in the 39 years Iowans have been hosting Caucuses. |
Official list
provided by the FEC. How significant a role in the nomination of presidential candidates does the Iowa Caucus play? The Caucuses are
primarily for the Democratic and Republican parties. In the last 39
years, starting in the 1970s when Iowa moved its' Caucus to be the first
Caucus in the Nation, Iowa has become a predictor in identifying the top
three candidates from both parties. Only those candidates who
finish in the top half of their party typically move on to campaign
strong in other states. In fact, in the past, the Iowa Caucuses have
become more of a clearing field in determining which candidates will
stay in the race and which candidates will throw in the towel. This
would appear to be a more accurate depiction of Iowa's role in the
presidential campaigns than in determining which candidate will be
nominated by their respective party. Iowa does play a big part in
allowing candidates a chance to showcase their political prowess to a
fairly middle of the road state. Iowa can be somewhat of a barometer measuring the nation's state-of-mind because, for the last ten Iowa Caucuses, Iowa has identified the nation's two primary picks for the top runner from both the Democratic and Republican party five times and from just the Democratic party six times. The importance of Iowa may become more significant to the individual candidates running for president than to their individual party simply because it may be cheaper to campaign in Iowa than in many of the other states entertaining the notion of scheduling their Primaries closer to the Iowa Caucus. A win in an early state that is cheaper to campaign in gives an advantage to those candidates who would normally not have the funds to campaign in a larger state. Larger states will cost the candidates a greater amount of upfront capital to campaign per registered voter. In addition, Iowa has its' population clustered into regions within the state, which makes it easier to reach potential audiences. Campaigning in a state like Iowa has advantages over larger states because their media outlets will focus on candidates as though they were celebrities, giving them free press and headline news, whereas other states would continue to cater to local celebrities, athletes, and business leaders, giving them the coverage and headline news, which would overshadow a political campaign candidate. Iowa and
other states of similar size are playing a larger role in close
elections because of the electoral college. In 2000, the difference
between the winner and loser was only five electoral votes, which means
states like Arkansas, Tennessee, and Iowa can change an election
outcome drastically. Donkey or Elephant? Democrat or Republican? Liberal or Conservative? Which are YOU? The folks at PoliticalHumor.com devised a quiz to pinpoint your political Id. Could you be a closet Republican voting as a Democrat? Or are you a true-blue Democrat? Is there a chance you're a Democrat in Republican clothing? Or are you a red-blooded Republican? Take the quiz and find out! What are the top 10 Presidential Qualities and which Presidents possessed them while in office? C-SPAN conducted a Survey of Presidential Leadership, as the last piece of the puzzle of their American Presidents series, which ran for a year. Historians and viewers were invited to participate online. The survey rated 10 qualities of presidential leadership, which were established by an advisory team, including Public Persuasion, Crisis Leadership, Economic Management, Moral Authority, International Relations, Administrative Skills, Relations with Congress, Vision/Setting Agenda, Pursued Equal Justice For All, and Performance Within Context of Times. The survey was sent to approximately 90 historians and presidential experts who had already been participating in the American Presidents series and the same survey was also made available to viewers online. So which past
President was the least 'Presidential' and which seemed to be born to play
the part effortlessly? Read the survey below and find out how well
your favorite past President scored. POLITICAL QUOTES "In
a certain sense, and to a certain extent, he [the president] is the
representative of the people. He is elected by them, as well as congress
is. But can he, in the nature [of] things, know the wants of the people,
as well as three hundred other men, coming from all the various
localities of the nation? If so, where is the propriety of having a
congress?"
"The President is merely
the most important among a large number of public servants. He
should be supported or opposed exactly to the degree which is
warranted by his good conduct or bad conduct, his efficiency or
inefficiency in rendering loyal, able, and disinterested service to
the Nation as a whole. Therefore it is absolutely necessary that
there should be full liberty to tell the truth about his acts, and
this means that it is exactly necessary to blame him when he does
wrong as to praise him when he does right. Any other attitude in an
American citizen is both base and servile. To announce that there
must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by
the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile,
but is morally treasonable to the American public. Nothing but the
truth should be spoken about him or any one else. But it is even
more important to tell the truth, pleasant or unpleasant, about him
than about any one else." "A
year ago, my approval rating was in the 30s, my nominee for
the Supreme Court had just withdrawn, and my Vice President
had shot someone. Ahhh, those were the good old days."
"The president is
really sorry he couldn't be here tonight. ... His book club is meeting."
"I
have had other offers. But, frankly, Jay, when you refuse to
do nude scenes, it really cuts down on the opportunities.
... I just want to clarify. I have no plans to do a nude
scene. I have no intention to do a nude scene. I don't
expect to do a nude scene. But I haven't made a Shermanesque
statement about it." “A president's hardest task is not to do what is right, but to know what is right.” - Lyndon Johnson By the end of George
Washington's first term, and much to his dismay, two political parties were
emerging from the one. He retired at the end of his second term worn
weary from politics, and in his Farwell Address, he urged his countrymen to
'forswear excessive party
spirit and geographical distinctions.' Two hundred and ten years later, and Washington's fears have been realized. Although the two prominent parties, Democratic and Republican, seem to agree more often than disagree on core issues, the parties are very clearly divided on sensitive issues, such as abortion, gay and minority rights, and the mingling of religion and politics. Theodore Roosevelt was quoted as saying "There are good men and bad men of all nationalities, creeds and colors; and if this world of ours is ever to become what we hope some day it may become, it must be by the general recognition that the man's heart and soul, the man's worth and actions, determine his standing." Many of us have admired a President's successes, believing we would have done the same if we were in their shoes, and many of us have been disappointed by a President's failures, knowing we would have done better if given the opportunity. It takes a strong and courageous individual to run for the office of President. But just what is that elusive trait that one must possess to actually become President? And do the presidential candidates of 2008 have what it takes? George Washington's sound advice? "I hope I shall possess firmness and virtue enough to maintain what I consider the most enviable of all titles, the character of an honest man." We thank the above official candidates and the following resources:
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